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20121008
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a minute, how could you have government jobs doing what they're doing? isn't it peculiar they're doing that now? we look at every element. whatever number you can pick, you can attach some conspiracy theory. i do not think, as i said earlier, that it stands the test of time. if you look over time, you go debt these inconsistencies. >> what i was a real estate reporter 20 years ago, there were people who thought we were manipulating the housing numbers back then. that was in the first bush administration. let me talk about the fiscal cliff a little bit. what's the deal going to look like? is there going to be a deal? describe what you think might happen here. >> so we put a 60 to 70% probable that there is a deal after the election, probably in the lame duck session or shortly thereafter. we think -- and there's a great piece on pimco.com by my colleagues that details that. we think that will amount to about a 1 to 1.5% contraction in fiscal terms as opposed to the 4% contraction that we would get in fiscal terms from the fiscal cliff. it is possible, not probable, that we go over the c
the world and dealing with a government that withholds information. how do you balance that? of course, i'm talking about the chinese. >> well, that was actually, you know, there were a lot of issues around that. not only with alibaba but also with all of the users in china. to make sure that we were doing the right thing for everyone relative to freedom of information, so that's not going to go away any time soon. it's just going to have many chapters. we're probably only in chapter three. >> what a tremendous fall. i mean, shareholders obviously, yourself included, have watched the company lose a tremendous amount of market value. you think yahoo! can get it back? >> i think they can. think still have almost 800 million users. everybody likes to down play that. it's the third biggest group of users on the web. you know what's interesting is as i go around, if i get, you know, 30 miles outside of silicon valley, people love yaho yahoo!. they're always telling me about yahoo! mail and how they get their information. so i don't think they're nearly as cynical or abused as perhaps the press
, problems in congress, problems with tax code, the problems in our government, the administration. also, listen, bernanke said -- >> maria, the fact that everyone's saying -- >> we didn't see 2008 coming either. >> the fact that everyone is saying qe is not having any effect means that they really are missing the boat. there was $3 trillion worth of corporate issuance in the year to date so far. $1 trillion worth of bonds were sold by corporations. that reduces, obviously, betters their balance sheets, reduces their rates so for the next ten years these corporations are going to be having the benefit of cheap money. 150 or 100 basis points over treasuries to issue cash, that's a great deal. using that money to buy back stock, using that money to pay dividends. tom lee had a great piece that said the outstanding shares of the new york stock exchange are as low as they have been in 1990. what's happening is you have a run-up to qe. the market anticipates that so of course the response is going to be muted to the qe. subsequent months later we then see the market continue to grind higher.
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